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Paulo Santos

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  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    In the midst of many contracts it's always possible to have some ties like these, they don't look like terminal stuff given the values. The coal contract seems the worst, but that's spread over several years.
    May 22 06:42 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    If natural gas stays low for 2 years, maybe. The sector could conceivably become a wasteland if that happens.
    May 22 06:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Over the longer term one should see higher exports, but the retiring of some coal units and the lack of new coal units will be somewhat worrying, yes. Still, what I expect to drive coal longer term will be natural gas going meaningfully higher, like $4-$5 at least, maybe higher.

    All in all I am not expecting coal to trade like it did during 2007/2008 or 2010, even though I expect it to go higher.
    May 22 04:23 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    I don't panic on rumors, I try to avoid standing in their way - that's the reason why I didn't go long JRCC or PCX.
    May 22 03:26 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Where do I deny natural gas rallied strongly? Hell, I was long natural gas for almost the entirety of that rally ... coal can't rally with natural gas yet, because the first part of the rally was just to re-establish equilibrium. From now on if natural gas continues, THEN it helps coal go up as well.
    May 22 03:26 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    It might be a false rumor, but Mark, you're clearly showing strong signs of the Nile ... :-)
    May 22 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Well I'm not as optimistic as you, regarding PCX.
    May 22 03:04 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
    I respect yours too, but if sales commissions aren't obvious expenses, then what are they? That's a good part of the marketing line as per AMZN, and a good part of the technology line is keeping the lines on at AWS, as per Credit Suisse.
    May 22 02:50 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of Amazon's Market Value [View article]
    Yes, I knew the impact was huge, that's why I was calling into question using obvious expenses as investments.
    May 22 02:39 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Still, whatever it was, it did soil the sector, and even if it recovered somewhat, it didn't recover completely.
    May 22 02:32 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    There will be some doing that as well, in time.
    May 22 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    PCX provided an update, didn't say much new, but didn't confirm the reestructuring rumor, so it's going back up and taking the whole sector with it, again:

    http://yhoo.it/K9mMwR

    Still, weird trading - seems like it was a bear raid on the whole sector. Or a pure, natural, panic.
    May 22 02:25 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, obviously. But while there is no such guarantee, the higher marginal cost when they run at least gives them a chance to be profitable. If the prices were always the ones applied to baseload even when there were peaks, then they wouldn't be profitable for sure.

    Which is the whole point.
    May 22 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Weird, weird trading.
    May 22 02:16 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Panic Has Arrived, It's Time To Buy [View article]
    That's kinda different, I'd say. You don't see regular liabilities, financial liabilities jumping around unless they're in the contracts already. With asbestos, there was no formal contract leading to the liabilities.
    May 22 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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