June Auto Sales: No Good News Here for Satellite Radio

Auto sales are down. This has been the month after month news item for most auto manufacturers. With the exception of a few bright spots, the entire auto industry is in a slump. With high gas prices, many companies are offering clearance prices on what are now considered gas guzzling trucks and SUVs. Four cylinder cars are now the hot commodity, and even many of these simply are not selling at the needed pace.

For satellite radio sector watchers, the slumping sales in the OEM channel is an undertone that, coupled with the lack of a merger decision, makes many investors have pause in the sector. In an environment where good news seems to always be followed with a pause and then bad news, it is hard for the satellite radio equities to see any momentum.

The chart below outlines auto sales, SDARS partners and estimated installation rates. We caution readers that this is merely a guide, and not representative of actual installations. Readers who seek more detail can refer to previous months and/or years sales at Sirius Buzz to draw better comparisons.

Click to enlarge

Many analysts started off 2008 seeing the OEM channel as a driver for satellite radio subscriptions. Most used some base assumptions, projecting subscriber numbers based on a certain level of car sales happening combined with a bigger ramp-up in the rate at which SDARS receivers are installed. Now with half of 2008 gone, and car sales still slumping, there could well be some adjustments in the models that analysts use.

Historically, the take rate for SDARS on OEM installations has hovered in the 50% range. This metric has remained virtually unchanged during the sales slump of cars. For SDARS, that represents a small silver lining, but at the end of the day, installations need to happen, and cars need to sell.

I project that upon a merger decision, additional guidance will be given by Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR). Until that time, we need to rely on the assumptions of analysts, or our own research into the sector to determine what the subscriber picture will look like at the end of the year.

Position - Long Sirius, XM. No position OEMs.

Comments

[valuestocksonly]

I have friends that work for a large used car dealership here in Los Angeles. They say they are beginning to see alot of trade-ins satellite ready. That I believe is an avenue that the analysts have forgotten about.

Position: Long sirius, xm.

[Sirius Fan]

High energy costs, slumping auto sales, downturn in the market, etc., etc. Those of us old enough to remember the mid to late '70's have seen this before. Those who saw that period of time as an opportunity became incredibly wealthy during the '80's. They knew it was just a cycle, and that it would eventually pass.

This, too, shall pass.

[tech man]

thank God for some good new from siris fan, i have heard enough bad news to last 2 life times. every body is so doom and gloom. I had lot rather be an optomist that the other. times are hard, but good times will come back. it is those times that we look forward to. there is a season for everything. So the lesson here is the get the right frame of mind. Be positive, larry kudlow says it best. if anything this is the best time to be in the market when prices are at an all time low. buy, buy, buy. i am getting killed on a couple of my stocks but i know that they will go back up. But, on top of that do good research. lets get it together and wait, times will change for the better.... until better times t.m.

[Seamless82]

Let's take pride in our nation, folks. Our economy has been through much, and relief seems like a long shot. But never underestimate the ingenuity of the American business professional and consumer.

And in the words on Kudlow, "Drill, drill, drill".

[justice1]

I have watched, read and tried to figure out why it takes so long for a small company like sirrius an xm to merge but exxon mobile in a matter of months. it's all about money and political clout. Now they want siri and xm to give up 50% of its air wave for what. I am a minority and what happen to good, fair american competition?

[Splinter]

Amen to valuestock.
The trditional lease is a 39 month. Basically 3 years. Many americans lease these days. 3 years means '05 and '06's are starting to be turned in. Many of those cars have factory installed satelite radio's. Now the really exciting news is, toward the end of next year, the '07's are going to be turned in and let loose on the used car market. Now, the drivers that kept the service are obviously going to keep it, and they are basically going to turn the radios over to a whole new demographic of people that are going to be turned on. We are literally on the verge of this phenomenom happening. I have been following this sector for awhile, and I don't see many people talking about this.

[Plowboy]

Commissioner Tate plays Kathy Bates - In the movie "Misery"
Remember the movie "Misery" where Kathy Bates "Hobbles" James Caan so that she can keep him incapacitate just enough to enjoy his company, but to never see him become healthy enough to leave or defend himself? Every time the poor bastard would start to heal, here comes Kathy with a sledgehammer to crush his ankles.

See an analogy here?

The FCC five are not stupid people, in fact, if you look at their writings you'll discover that they are highly intelligent and articulate people. I've read most of their individual works and rulings. However, apparently something is horribly amiss as past history has shown that the average merger processes in less than 9 months .. So why are we here nearing 18 months with two quickly fading companies whose stock is valued by the leading financial house in the ENTIRE world as being worth less than a Big Mac or a quart and a half of gasoline?

Why ... Because the FCC knows very well that this merger is necessary for the proliferation ... no, existence of satrad. They know these companies are deeply in dept and can't sustain themselves for another half year, they know people love the service, they know satrad provides a great pubic service, they know the NAB has had a monopoly for years treating consumers like sheep.... and YOU know all these things are true!

But as Mr. Addlestein's writing hint (and I like him as a person and Commissioner ... he'd make a great future Chairman IMO) the FCC has allowed itself to be controlled by Congress... and Congress has allowed itself to be controlled by the NAB... and the NAB's intent is to destroy Satrad for their own financial benefit.

The FCC has fully relinquished its autonomy under Kevin Martin.

So what is a puppet FCC organization to do? Torn by the dictates of their puppet masters yet intelligent and moral people who realize that they are not doing their duty to consumers or the technology by nixing this arrangement.

They "Hobble" Sirius and XM very much like Kathy did. They take XM and Sirius within inches of their lives. This way they can have it as close to "both ways" as possible. Please their Congressional puppet masters and (lastly) hopefully the public.

This is exactly what they have done!

Let's hope it's not too late.
Go Jimmy Go!

[V.L.]

Satellite radio has been made a martyr. May be it is a paback for excessively high expectations in the beginning. Those who went to school and can add 2 & 2 can see that even with this "bad news" the news is not that bad at all. Even with a very conservative retention rate of, say, 40% during this very tough year, Sirius and XM should have picked up jointly about 1.6 M new subscribers by July 1. And this is a time when they are being literally destroyed, intentionally or untintentionally, by the FCC. Once they are combined, they will get back on track within 12 to 18 months, the confusiion will be gone, and some analysts will have to shut up. You cannot stop the progress and innovation no matter how hard you try. The future is definitely with the satellite radio.

[skyking]

People...there's a hack-kit out there allowing Sirius to be picked up thru the i-phone....the future is here....x-mas 09? that is if FCC ever gets of its collective and rules....this week would be fitting ...i.e independence day.....how about a massive-phone& e-mail blitz to FCC members....taxation without representation is the stuff of revolutions...lets get sirius already

[PROTECT AND SERVE 0310]

did that done that

[PROTECT AND SERVE 0310]

done that did that

[theinvestingspeculator]

In a couple years America car companies will be a sceaming buy. As soon as they get new in-demand fuel efficient cars. And we have aa couple years of bend-up demand.

[163888]

Plowboy, would you get off it already. how many times to I have to tell you it is your own party that is holding this up. First you blamed Martin then he said he approves with very reasonable concessions, now you move onto Tate. I have a question for you why not be blaming your fellow democrats that have been against this merger from the begining. Come on, even Cramer who is a democrat knows who to blame, who has been against this merger. I love how you try to sweep what those two democrats have said about this merger under the rug. You are the problem, you instead of writing the democrat commissioners you write the republican ones you want action then blame the party that has held this up you moron. You should take a look at which party, most of the congress/senate and state AGs are from, that oppose this merger. Get your head out of your a$$.

[killerkaul]

888.... On that note.... good morning...how was your weekend?

[cos1000]

163888.....Here! Here! I love a good fight in the morning. Tate as Kathy Bates, are you kidding me Plowboy. What about Copps who has been against the merger from the beginning and still is. Let's not forget our most recent, as though they couldn't have commented sooner Senater's, Kerry, McCaskill and Cardin, all Dem's, who wand HD Radio given a free ride on Sat Rad's back and spectrum for minorities. Yeah, that damn Tate alright. Please.....Hold me back...I ought'a .......

[163888]

killerkaul, It was great.

cos1000, I just cant stand democrats that still cant get it through their thick heads that it is their party and their ideology that has been the hold up. What worries me more then this merger is that it is these thick headed morons that are going to cost this country in the next election. I used to say people cant be that dumb that they would vote for the most liberal, american hating, racist ever to come up for president in modern time. That they have to be able to see that you dont spend 20 years in a church listening to that kind of racist american hating crap and not be effected, you wonder how terrorist could blow themselves up, Madrasa/Rev. Wrights church anybody. That after they heard about the books he and his wife have writen the fact that he did not want to wear a flag pin, the fact he is friends with a terrorist (William A.), that after all that both of them have said. That even a nit wit democrat could put all that together and say; Are you crazy I would never vote for that kind of a man even if he were the last democrat on this earth. But the comments by Plowboy, really have me worried.

[163888]

killerkaul, It was great.

cos1000, I just cant stand democrats that still cant get it through their thick heads that it is their party and their ideology that has been the hold up. What worries me more then this merger is that it is these thick headed morons that are going to cost this country in the next election. I used to say people cant be that dumb that they would vote for the most liberal, american hating, racist ever to come up for president in modern time. That they have to be able to see that you dont spend 20 years in a church listening to that kind of racist american hating crap and not be effected, you wonder how terrorist could blow themselves up, Madrasa/Rev. Wrights church anybody. That after they heard about the books he and his wife have writen the fact that he did not want to wear a flag pin, the fact he is friends with a terrorist (William A.), that after all that both of them have said. That even a nit wit democrat could put all that together and say; Are you crazy I would never vote for that kind of a man even if he were the last democrat on this earth. But the comments by Plowboy, really have me worried.

[163888]

Wow, I dont know what happen there. Sorry, was not posting it 3 times to show my point, it was a mistake.

[killerkaul]

888..... That's alright. I just love seeing my name in print.